In September 2021, an article published in Marine Biology, Journal of Life in Oceans and Coastal Waters, was distributed by the NMFS as a paper and computer model that might be used as a possible decision-making tool for determining whether to open Closed Zones off East and Gulf of Mexico coasts.
A review of the paper identified flaws that should preclude the application of this PRISM model to any Closed Zone Decisions. The paper presented an exercise of using a binary logistic regression model to predict the probability of bycatch by pelagic longline and benthic longline fisheries. The method of binary logistic regression is a powerful tool for estimating binary probabilities if it is used correctly. However, TBF’s review did not substantiate the correct application of the method.